How Much Is a Square Metre in Marrakech Really Worth? What the Official Data Say

18,000 dirhams in Guéliz? 25,000 in Hivernage? 40,000 for certain apartments? 60,000 or more for a high-end property?

When looking for the property price per square metre in Marrakech, there is no shortage of figures.

The problem is that they do not all measure the same thing.

Some come from property listings. Others from market professionals. Others still from studies devoted exclusively to prime property.

And then there is administrative data: from the Direction Générale des Impôts, the Agence Nationale de la Conservation Foncière, du Cadastre et de la Cartographie — the ANCFCC — and Bank Al-Maghrib.

What do these data actually tell us?

And above all: do they make it possible to say that an apartment, villa or riad in Marrakech is worth a particular price per square metre?

The answer is far more interesting than a simple price table.

Is there an official price per square metre in Marrakech?

Yes and no.

For several years, the Moroccan administration has used property price reference frameworks.

The ANCFCC still offers an official service today entitled the Référentiel Commun des Prix, allowing users to consult reference values by area and property category.

These values have, in particular, a fiscal and administrative function.

But one point is fundamental.

An administrative reference price is not automatically the market value of a property.

The administration itself made this clear when these reference frameworks were introduced: the published values correspond to average prices observed in a given area and for a given type of property.

They serve as a reference.

They do not constitute an individual valuation of the property.

The distinction is essential.

The Marrakech reference framework was already far more precise than a simple “average city price”

The first reference frameworks published by the Direction Générale des Impôts also show how absurd it would be to speak of a single price per square metre for Marrakech.

In the updated Marrakech reference framework of March 2017, the prefecture was divided into 97 distinct property zones.

The breakdown was as follows:

In other words, the administration itself did not regard “Guéliz” as a single price.

It distinguished sub-areas, certain streets and certain thoroughfares.

And it went further still.

Depending on the area, the tables distinguished between:

• older apartment;
• more recent apartment;
• new-build apartment;
• house;
• villa;
• secure villa;
• riad;
• land intended for a villa;
• land intended for a building;
• land associated with certain golf areas;
• land area;
• land value and construction value in certain categories.

This is highly revealing.

Even for the tax administration, a square metre of property was never a uniform product.

Why the old reference values are not Marrakech’s current prices

This is where a common mistake must be avoided.

It would be tempting today to take an official 2017 table and present its figures as the “true price per square metre in Marrakech”.

That would be wrong.

The market has changed profoundly since then.

Some neighbourhoods have changed.

New developments have appeared.

Several peripheral areas have developed.

International demand has changed.

Construction costs have evolved.

The market for riads, golf villas and certain high-end properties has also shifted.

The old tables are therefore useful for understanding the methodology and history of property values in Marrakech.

They cannot be used alone to determine the current value of a property.

To analyse recent market trends, another official source must be examined.

IPAI: what recorded transactions actually tell us

Bank Al-Maghrib and the ANCFCC jointly publish the Indice des Prix des Actifs Immobiliers, or IPAI.

This index is particularly interesting because it is not based on listings published online.

It uses information from the transaction market.

Its so-called repeat-sales method tracks properties that have been involved in at least two transactions.

Why?

Because one of the major challenges in property is heterogeneity.

If, during one quarter, Marrakech mainly sells small apartments and, in the following quarter, more large villas are sold, simply comparing the average price for the two periods would produce a misleading conclusion.

The repeat-sales method seeks to neutralise part of this effect.

It is a much more robust measure of market trends.

But it still does not answer the question:

“How much is my 120 m² apartment on a particular street in Guéliz worth?”

What do the latest official data say about Marrakech?

In the second quarter, Marrakech’s property index rose by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter.

Nationwide, the overall index rose by 0.7% over the quarter.

But not all property categories evolved in the same way.

Nationwide, over one year:

• residential property rose by 1%;
• apartments rose by 1.1%;
• houses fell by 0.7%;
• villas fell by 0.3%;
• land rose by 0.3%;
• commercial property rose by 0.6%.

Even more interestingly, transaction volumes sometimes change much faster than prices.

This reflects a reality regularly seen in the Marrakech property market :

market activity can change sharply without prices immediately following in the same proportions.

Why IPAI does not say “Guéliz = X dirhams/m²”

Because that is not its purpose.

IPAI is an index of change.

It answers questions such as:

Are prices rising or falling?

Are transactions accelerating or slowing?

Are apartments evolving differently from villas?

It is not a detailed property price index for every street.

This distinction is particularly important when seeking to establish the true value of a property in Marrakech.

So why are there so many “average prices per m²” online?

Because they are relatively easy to calculate.

A portal has thousands of listings.

It adds up the asking prices, relates them to the stated floor areas and can produce an average or median.

This information is useful.

It helps track the visible market.

But it must not be confused with prices actually agreed.

Let us take a deliberately simple example.

Ten apartments are offered in an area at around 20,000 DH/m².

That does not necessarily mean that apartments there sell for 20,000 DH/m².

Some may sell for 19,000.

Others for 17,500.

An exceptional property may sell for 23,000.

And several listings shown at 22,000 may never find a buyer at that level.

A listings database measures sellers’ expectations. A transactions database measures what has actually found a buyer.

Both are useful.

But they do not tell exactly the same story.

In Marrakech, the problem of price per square metre is even more significant

In certain highly homogeneous cities, price per square metre can provide a relatively effective first approximation.

Marrakech is far more complex.

The market combines, in the same location:

• urban apartments;
• residences with swimming pools;
• city villas;
• golf villas;
• properties on several thousand square metres;
• riads;
• guest houses;
• urban land;
• peripheral land;
• rural properties;
• tourist property;
• new developments;
• branded residences.

Comparing all these products using a single per-square-metre indicator would make practically no sense.

Guéliz: a few streets can change the comparison

Take Guéliz.

To say:

“An apartment in Guéliz is worth X dirhams per square metre”

is already a considerable approximation.

At a minimum, you need to consider:

• the street;
• the immediate surroundings;
• the residence;
• the year of construction;
• the floor;
• the lift;
• the parking;
• the terrace;
• the natural light;
• noise pollution;
• the quality of the communal areas;
• the condition of the apartment;
• the service charges.

A dark ground-floor apartment on a noisy thoroughfare is not really part of the same market as a fully renovated apartment on a high floor, with a large terrace in a sought-after residence.

Yet both may appear under the same filter:

Apartment — Guéliz — 120 m².

Hivernage: the neighbourhood name is not enough either

Hivernage is often presented as a homogeneous high-end market.

It is not.

The residence, street, age of the building, views, terrace, nuisances, construction quality, parking and amenities can profoundly alter the appeal of an apartment.

Some addresses attract stronger demand than others.

Some residences are well known and sought after.

Others age less well.

Once again:

the neighbourhood provides context; it does not give the property’s exact price.

Villas: the per-square-metre calculation becomes even less reliable

For a villa for sale in Marrakech, the notion of price per square metre is even more complex.

Imagine two villas with 500 m² of living space.

The first stands on 900 m² of land.

The second on 5,000 m².

The first is located in a densely developed residence.

The second benefits from a very open setting.

The first is fifteen years old and requires renovation.

The second has just been completely restructured.

The first has overlooking properties.

The second has a front-line position on a golf course or enjoys unobstructed views of the Atlas.

Yet their built area is identical.

Their value, obviously, is not.

For a villa, it is often necessary to separate:

• the land value;
• the construction value;
• the condition of the building;
• the facilities;
• the architectural quality;
• the rarity of the location.

This is also the logic already found in the old administrative reference frameworks, with certain categories distinguishing the value of the land from that of the construction.

Médina: probably one of the markets where price per m² is most misleading

The Médina offers another illustration.

A riad with a 250 m² footprint is not automatically comparable with another 250 m² riad.

You need to consider:

• the exact location;
• the neighbourhood;
• the derb;
• access;
• the distance from parking;
• the width of the access routes;
• structural condition;
• the number of levels;
• the terrace;
• the quality of the renovation;
• the architecture;
• the number of bedrooms;
• any potential for operation.

The old official Marrakech reference framework already distinguished several areas within the Médina and, in particular, separated old, recent and new riads.

The current market takes this segmentation even further.

Palmeraie, main roads and outskirts: here, the land becomes decisive

For the Palmeraie and the major roads around Marrakech — Ourika, Amizmiz, Fès, Casablanca and Ouarzazate — considering only built square metres is often insufficient.

The land may represent an essential part of the value.

And not all land is equivalent.

In particular, you need to consider:

• planning status;
• land title;
• building potential;
• access;
• utilities;
• road quality;
• actual distance from the centre;
• surroundings;
• views;
• the plot’s dimensions and shape.

Two hectares located around Marrakech can therefore represent two entirely different assets.

Golf estates constitute their own micro-markets

Amelkis, Al Maaden, Samanah, Noria and Royal Palm further illustrate this logic.

We discussed this in detail in our guide to buying a villa on a golf course in Marrakech.

For the same floor area, value can depend greatly on:

• the estate;
• the phase;
• whether it is in the first or second row;
• orientation;
• the view;
• the land;
• overlooking;
• the age of the construction;
• renovation;
• the level of service charges.

The mention “Amelkis” is therefore no more a price than the mention “Guéliz”.

Can a price per square metre nevertheless be used?

Of course.

The problem is not the indicator.

The problem is how it is used.

A price per square metre is a starting point.

It immediately helps identify certain anomalies.

If a property comparable with the market is offered at a level twice as high as the other available references, there must be an explanation.

Conversely, a property offered substantially below its surroundings must also be analysed.

But the price per square metre must then be adjusted to reflect the property itself.

That is precisely why our tool for choosing an area in Marrakech considers use, property type and location rather than relying on a simplistic ranking of neighbourhoods from least to most expensive.

The three levels of information to distinguish

To understand the Marrakech market properly, it is useful to distinguish three sources.

1. Asking prices

They show what sellers are currently asking.

They help measure supply and competition.

2. Administrative reference values

The Référentiel Commun des Prix gives the administration reference points by area and property category.

These values are used, in particular, in a tax and land-registration context.

They do not automatically constitute an individual valuation of a property.

3. Indices based on transactions

The IPAI published by Bank Al-Maghrib and the ANCFCC tracks changes in prices actually observed in transactions using a statistical methodology.

It is particularly relevant for tracking the market’s general trend.

But it is not intended to give the value of a specific villa.

These three sources of information are not competing.

They simply answer three different questions.

Is there, then, a “true official price index” for Marrakech?

Not in the form many people imagine.

There are indeed:

• administrative references;
• a geographical breakdown;
• information from transactions;
• official indices;
• statistics by property category.

But there is no public index that automatically allows one to state:

Guéliz apartment: X DH/m².

Amelkis villa: Y DH/m².

Médina riad: Z DH/m².

And that is probably for the best.

Because such a presentation would create an impression of precision that the property market does not allow.

So how can you establish the real price per square metre of a property in Marrakech?

The comparison area must be progressively narrowed.

Start with Marrakech.

Then the area.

Then the micro-location.

Then the property type.

Then the floor area.

Then the condition.

Then the amenities.

Then the genuinely competing properties.

And finally, the closest transactions or references available.

A serious property valuation in Marrakech therefore does not consist of entering a floor area into a calculator.

It consists of building a sufficiently close set of comparables to obtain a defensible value range.

What the official data really tell us

Ultimately, they teach us something more interesting than a price per square metre.

Marrakech has never been a single market.

The administration itself understood this by dividing the city into dozens of zones and distinguishing property categories.

The current statistics from Bank Al-Maghrib and the ANCFCC in turn confirm that apartments, houses, villas, land and commercial assets can follow different trajectories.

We must therefore be wary both of overly broad averages and of extraordinarily precise figures whose source is not explained.

A credible property price should be able to answer three questions:

What data is being used?

What type of property does it relate to?

And is it genuinely comparable with the property being assessed?

If there is no clear answer, the per-square-metre figure is probably less precise than it appears.

Official sources used

This article is based mainly on:

• the publications and services of the Agence Nationale de la Conservation Foncière, du Cadastre et de la Cartographie (ANCFCC) ;
• the Référentiel Commun des Prix ;
• the old Référentiels des Prix des Transactions Immobilières published by the Direction Générale des Impôts, particularly the updated edition devoted to Marrakech;
• the Indice des Prix des Actifs Immobiliers (IPAI) published jointly by Bank Al-Maghrib and the ANCFCC ;
• the publications of the Ministère de l’Économie et des Finances relating to the methodology and use of property reference frameworks.

Administrative reference values should not be equated with the individual valuation of a property. They are one of several data points used when analysing its value.

Would you like to know the value of a specific property?

An average neighbourhood price provides an initial indication.

It does not replace an assessment of the property.

Cameron Immobilier analyses the micro-location, floor areas, land, the property’s condition, amenities, legal status, competing properties and available references in order to establish a consistent value range.

You can request a property valuation in Marrakech or view the properties currently available in Marrakech.

The right price per square metre is not the one most easily found online.

It is the one whose source can be explained.